Courtesy of Kentucky Lantern
The first independent poll in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race shows a three-way split among top Republicans and that many voters are still undecided on both sides of the aisle.
The Emerson-FOX56 poll released Thursday shows U.S. Rep. Andy Barr ahead of former Attorney General Daniel Cameron and businessman Nate Morris among likely GOP primary voters heading into the May primary.
Likely Democratic primary voters were polled about their candidates as well. The survey also asked general questions about elected officials, including Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear and Republican President Donald Trump.
Issues
The poll asked likely Kentucky primary voters their opinion on issues facing the state.
Asked “what do you think is the most important issue facing Kentucky,” 38% of the respondents surveyed said the economy, including jobs, inflation and taxes. Health care at 14.5% and threats to democracy at 13.5% followed.
The issue said the least was foreign policy at 1%.
The poll also asked if the likely voters thought tariffs on imports from other countries were more beneficial or more harmful to the economy. About 48% of the respondents said the tariffs were more harmful, while about 43% said they were more beneficial. Nine percent said they had no impact.
The poll found 24% of GOP voters in the survey are backing Barr with 21% supporting Cameron and 14% for Morris. The biggest chunk — 38% — are still undecided as 4% said they are backing other candidates.
The poll surveyed 523 likely GOP primary voters from Jan. 31 to Feb. 2. Its credibility interval is plus or minus 4.2%. Credibility interval is a confidence measure similar to margin of error.
Each of the three campaigns put a different spin on the findings.
“This poll shows what Kentuckians have been seeing on the ground for months: Andy Barr is the strongest candidate in this race,” said Alex Bellizzi, a spokesman for Barr’s campaign. He also touted his endorsements and fundraising efforts.
Nathanael Hirt, campaign manager for Cameron, dismissed the Emerson poll outright. A poll released last month by Cameron-aligned PAC Kentucky First Action, showed the former AG at 40% among likely GOP primary voters.
“No one — including Andy Barr — thinks Andy Barr is winning,” Hirt said. “This poll is unserious and silly. Polls one day ago and two weeks ago showed Daniel up double digits. Nothing moves that fast except lies.”
The Morris campaign commissioned a poll with Fabrizio, Lee & Associates released earlier this week that showed Morris gaining some ground with voters, though he was still polling behind Cameron and Barr. Morris recently gained some national attention after tech billionaire Elon Musk reportedly donated $10 million to back him in the race.
Conor McGuinness, a spokesperson for the Morris campaign, said that recent polls have shown Morris is “surging and within 10 points of the lead.”
“Nate is the only candidate moving in the right direction, he has a massive cash advantage between his self-funding ability and $10m of support from Elon Musk, and most importantly, he is the only political outsider and America First conservative in the race. We look forward to victory in May,” McGuinness added.
Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, said that the poll is not showing a true frontrunner because of the margin of error, “but it does suggest that the race more has likely narrowed, so that the two front runners are neck and neck, especially when you consider how many voters are still undecided.”
The Emerson poll also surveyed 381 likely Democratic primary voters and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5%.
Of likely Democratic primary voters surveyed, former state lawmaker Charles Booker leads with 30%. Former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath is polling at 19%, state House Minority floor leader Pamela Stevenson at 4% and other candidates at 4%, including horse trainer Dale Romans at less than 1%. The poll found 43% of the Democratic voters were undecided.
McGrath’s campaign manager, Hannah Eiden, said in a statement that the primary will be “about who’s best prepared to deliver for Kentuckians across the commonwealth on day one.”
“Undecided voters are asking who’s ready to do the work, and Amy is ready,” Eiden said.
Voss said that the poll suggests that Democratic voters will likely decide another Booker and McGrath rematch. They both ran for U.S. Senate in 2020, with McGrath then winning the nomination. She later lost to Republican U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell.
“This time, it’s not during the pandemic, and the election rules don’t favor McGrath over Booker the way they did last time,” Voss said.
Currently elected
The Emerson poll also surveyed both Republicans and Democrats about some current office holders, including Beshear.
One question was: “Do you think Andy Beshear should run for president in 2028?” About 35% of respondents said yes, while roughly 48% said no. About 18% were unsure.
The governor, who is term-limited in Kentucky, has been seen by some as a possible candidate for the next presidential race. He’s taken some steps to raise his national profile, including starting a super PAC and making regular national and international appearances.
Altogether 1,000 likely primary voters were polled with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
About 52% of respondents approved of the job Beshear is doing as governor, while 31% disapproved. About 17% of those surveyed were neutral or had no opinion. That contrasts with a Morning Consult poll released earlier this week that found Beshear continued to be the most popular Democratic governor in the country, with a 65% approval rating.
Eric Hyers, a political strategist for Beshear, told the Lantern the governor “works every day to make things better for Kentuckians, whether it’s attracting new, good-paying jobs, protecting public education, or leading the state through storms and keeping families safe.”
“As a result, he remains the most popular Democratic governor in the entire country, with consistently high job approvals as shown in two polls released this week,” Hyers continued.
The Emerson poll also asked Kentuckians about Trump. About 53% of those surveyed said they approved of the job he is doing so far, while 39% disapproved. About 8% were neutral or had no opinion. In presidential elections, Trump has won Kentucky three times. He won the state’s electoral votes in 2024 with about 65% of the vote.
Voss said that the poll showing Beshear’s popularity on par with Trump’s “shows how mutable, how flexible Kentucky’s electorate tends to be compared to voters in other states.”
As for the question about Beshear running for president in the future, Voss noted that several factors could have influenced how someone answered the question, like if they wanted Beshear to run for Senate instead and hadn’t realized the filing deadline passed or they would rather a governor focus on the state than national issues. He added that he was “not sure I’d read much into that.”
The voters were also asked about how they view Kentucky Republicans U.S. Sens. Rand Paul and McConnell
About 68% of those surveyed disapproved of McConnell, while 15% disapproved. About 17% were neutral or had no opinion. McConnell, who has held the office since his election in 1984, is not seeking reelection this year. That paved the way for the hotly contested Senate race.
About 30% of the respondents approved of Paul, while 32% disapproved and 38% were neutral or had no opinion.
Kentucky Lantern is part of States Newsroom, the nation’s largest state-focused nonprofit news organization.
