(This article first appeared in the print edition published Feb. 28)
The Super Bowl for film geeks is upon us once again! This year’s Academy Awards takes place on Sunday, March 10, with Jimmy Kimmel hosting for the fourth time. Despite the overall viewership being less than half of what it was 10 years ago, hopes are high that more people will tune in and continue the upward trend since the abysmal ratings in 2021. Two of 2023’s top-grossing releases are nominated for Best Picture, which hasn’t been the case over the last few years. Along with an eclectic group of motion pictures (including three Best Picture nominees featuring foreign languages), there may be plenty of history-making wins in store this year.
As of this writing, I have yet to see most of the nominees in the Shorts categories (Narrative, Documentary, and Animation) and the Feature Documentary category, so I will not predict those here. Every other category will be covered, with justifications in the larger categories underneath the winner. Here are some Oscar predictions to help get your ballot started before the telecast on ABC, with my best guess as to who WILL WIN and who SHOULD WIN.
Most importantly, good luck in your Oscar pools!
Best Picture:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN –
“Oppenheimer”
To say an Oscar is long overdue for Christoper Nolan is only part of the story. The fact that Nolan was able to make an engaging three-hour experimental magnum opus about a divisive historical figure that was not only compelling but profitable is a testament to his filmmaking abilities. He’s been doing this for almost two decades. It’s his time.
Best Director:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
*SEE ABOVE
Best Actor:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Could you argue that his role in The Holdovers is not too far removed from his role in Sideways (also directed by Alexander Payne)? Yes. Is it a good argument? Absolutely not. This performance stands out over the rest of the strong list of nominees because of the nuance and humanity Giamatti brings to the character. If you haven’t seen The Holdovers, please change that soon.
Best Actress:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Gladstone’s win will be historic, and her stoic performance in Martin Scorsese’s epic tale of greed and murder anchors what could have been an unbalanced Anglo-American perspective on the crimes perpetrated on the Osage people. Anytime you wonder what another character is doing when you have the powerhouse performers of Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert DeNiro on-screen, you know you’re watching something amazing.
Best Supporting Actor:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – Robert Downey, Jr.,
“Oppenheimer”
He was never going to get a fair shake during the Iron Man/Tony Stark phase of his career (even though he was next level in Iron Man 3), but the role as the duplicitous Lewis Strauss was the most memorable supporting turn this year. Along with Christopher Nolan, an Oscar statue for RDJ is long overdue.
Best Supporting Actress:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – Da’Vine Joy Randolph,
“The Holdovers”
Like her scene partner Paul Giamatti (and a shout out to Dominic Sessa as well), Randolph’s stellar take on a bereft private school cafeteria cook displayed an impressive range of emotional dynamics without being too showy. Seriously, stop reading this and go see this film if you haven’t yet.
Best Original Screenplay:
WILL WIN – “Anatomy of a Fall”
SHOULD WIN – “The Holdovers”
Best Adapted Screenplay:
WILL WIN – “Barbie”
SHOULD WIN – “Oppenheimer”
Best Animated Feature:
WILL WIN – “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
SHOULD WIN – “The Boy and the Heron”
Best Production Design:
WILL WIN – “Poor Things”
SHOULD WIN – “Barbie”
Best Cinematography:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN –
“Oppenheimer”
Best Costume Design:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – “Poor Things”
Best Film Editing:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN –
“Oppenheimer”
Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
WILL WIN – “Maestro”
SHOULD WIN – “Poor Things”
Best Sound:
WILL WIN – “Oppenheimer”
SHOULD WIN – “The Zone of Interest”
Best Visual Effects:
WILL WIN – “The Creator”
SHOULD WIN – “Godzilla: Minus One”
Best Original Score:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN –
“Oppenheimer”
Best Original Song:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – “What was I made for?” from “Barbie”
Best International Feature:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – “The Zone of Interest”