Without a single award handed out, the 2026 Academy Awards have already made history.
Warner Bros. Discovery tied itself for the record of most nominations by a studio with 30, and with the addition of a new category for the first time since 2002 (Best Casting), Sinners broke the record for most nominations with 16.
More good news for the Oscars: viewership is growing in the right direction, but still nowhere near pre-COVID ratings. This may change when the ceremony moves to YouTube in 2029.
The 2026 ceremony will take place in Los Angeles at 7 p.m. CST on Sunday, March 15 on ABC and Hulu (if you want to practice your streaming capabilities).
As of this writing, and like last few years, I was unable to see any of the Short Film Categories (once again, come on Showplace Cinemas and AMC Evansville 16!) so I will not provide predictions here. Every other category will be covered, with justifications in the major categories underneath the winner.
Here are some Oscar predictions to help get your ballot started before the telecast, with my best prediction as to who WILL WIN and who SHOULD WIN for the chosen category. Most importantly, see these nominees however you can, so you don’t cheat and use AI to fill out your Oscar ballot!
Best Picture:
WILL WIN – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
SHOULD WIN – SINNERS
The real winner of Best Picture is Warner Bros. Discovery! With the top two contenders coming from the same studio, and the studio being the focus of a heated bidding war between Paramount Skydance and Netflix, WBD is going to leave the Dolby Theater with a lot of statues. While Sinners made more of an impact on audiences, voters are going to lean toward Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest magnum opus.
Best Director:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON, ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Much like the Best Picture race, it really comes down to One Battle After Another and Sinners, but the fact that Paul Thomas Anderson has been making epic films for 30 years without receiving an Oscar is a criminal act unto itself. The Academy will right the wrongs and present PTA with the trophy for not only this effort, but as a means of atoning for their past sins. This may sound a little Film Bro-ish, but Anderson’s cinematic achievements finally deserve Academy recognition.
BEST ACTOR:
WILL WIN – TIMOTHE’E CHALAMET, MARTY SUPREME
SHOULD WIN – MICHAEL B. JORDAN, SINNERS
It feels like Chalamet’s career has been building up to this moment for the past few years, and he has been everywhere promoting Marty Supreme (and himself) for this award. To this point, it’s a career-defining performance, and a win could catapult the 30-year-old into a DiCaprio-like next level of stardom. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s won most of the awards leading up to the Oscars. That being said, Michael B. Jordan literally played twins with equal parts control and subtle distinction. Any other year, and the award is his. Hands down.
BEST ACTRESS:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN: JESSIE BUCKLEY, HAMNET
It was only a matter of time before Jessie Buckley found her way to Oscar glory, and it is well-deserved. Her performance displayed a dynamic, at times devastating range of emotions that never felt ostentatious or performative. She rooted every acting decision in a truth that will resonate with audiences and aspiring actresses for many years to come. Emma Stone in Bugonia (who has already won) and Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value (who will win soon) also deserve high praise.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
WILL WIN – STELLAN SKARSGARD, SENTIMENTAL VALUE
SHOULD WIN – DELROY LINDO, SINNERS
Another year, another stacked Best Supporting Actor group. All of these nominees are deserving of the award this year, but the “Sentimental” favorite is Skarsgard. Having to relearn speech and movement on an elementary level after a stroke, he returned to the screen without missing a beat. Delroy Lindo, as the emotional compass in Sinners, also demands serious consideration.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – TEYANA TAYLOR, ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
No offense to the rest of the nominees (who are all amazing actresses in their own right), but none of their performances made me think about them when they were offscreen like Taylor’s Perfidia Beverly Hills. This is a star-making performance that builds on her work from A.V. Rockwell’s 2023 drama One Thousand and One in a big way.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY):
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON, ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY):
WILL WIN – RONALD BRONSTEIN & JOSH SAFDIE, MARTY SUPREME
SHOULD WIN – RYAN COOGLER, SINNERS
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
WILL WIN – KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
SHOULD WIN – ARCO
CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL WIN – AUTUMN DURALD ARKAPAW, SINNERS
SHOULD WIN – ADOLPHO VELOSO, TRAIN DREAMS
COSTUME DESIGN:
WILL WIN – KATE HAWLEY, FRANKENSTEIN
SHOULD WIN – RUTH E. CARTER, SINNERS
FILM EDITING:
WILL WIN – ANDY JURGENSEN, ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
SHOULD WIN – STEVEN MIRRIONE, F1
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – SINNERS
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE):
WILL WIN – LUDWIG GORANSSON – SINNERS
SHOULD WIN – MAX RICHTER, HAMNET
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG):
WILL WIN – “GOLDEN” – KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
SHOULD WIN – “TRAIN DREAMS” – NICK CAVE AND BRYCE DESSNER
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM:
WILL WIN – THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR
SHOULD WIN – THE ALABAMA SOLUTION
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:
WILL WIN – THE SECRET AGENT
SHOULD WIN – SENTIMENTAL VALUE
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
WILL WIN – SINNERS
SHOULD WIN – FRANKENSTEIN
SOUND:
WILL WIN – SINNERS
SHOULD WIN – SIRAT
VISUAL EFFECTS:
WILL WIN – AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH
SHOULD WIN – SINNERS
BEST CASTING
WILL WIN – SINNERS
SHOULD WIN – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Henderson resident Dr. McManus Woodend is an Assistant Professor of Digital Media at the University of Southern Indiana and has worked in film, television and commercials for more than 20 years. To see some of his work, visit www.mcmanuswoodend.com.