The Academy Awards are upon us once again, and while the television audience has dramatically declined by over 23 million viewers this past decade (as is the case with all awards shows), the excitement for those of us who still look forward to the annual parade of cinema’s best is still very much alive.
This year, however, the Oscar campaign mudslinging has been in full effect for two top contenders. The Brutalist (with talk of significant AI use for its actors’ performances) and Emilia Pérez (whose star Karla Sofía Gascón has been publicly skewered for past Twitter comments) have brought a level of scandal to the event before the first award has been handed out.
The ceremony takes place in Los Angeles on Sunday, and as always, plenty of stars have been nominated and will be in attendance. As of this writing, and just like last year, I was unable to see any of the Short Film Categories (Come on Showplace Cinemas and AMC Evansville 16!) so I will not provide predictions here. Every other category will be covered, with justifications in the major categories underneath the winner.
Here are some Oscar predictions to help get your ballot started before the telecast on ABC, with my best guess as to who WILL WIN and who SHOULD WIN. Most importantly, good luck in your Oscar pools!
Best Picture:
WILL WIN – ANORA
SHOULD WIN – THE BRUTALIST
The sweep of several year-end awards for Anora has given the film scandal-free momentum to take home the top honor of the night. Sean Baker and his cast created the perfect type of madcap lunacy usually reserved for French farce, with a behind-the-scenes crew that kept the film from losing its intimacy and immediacy. But, regardless of the controversy surrounding the use of AI in the Hungarian performances of its leads, The Brutalist is the epitome of epic filmmaking in the classic sense and scale (and at a fraction of the price). Also, don’t be surprised if Conclave sneaks in and ruins both their nights.
Best Director:
WILL WIN – SEAN BAKER, ANORA
SHOULD WIN – BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST
Both directors are deserving of the award, and the winner may end up receiving this as a consolation prize for not getting Best Picture (which has been the case over the years). Much like Anora’s Best Picture wins, Sean Baker has also won many year-end awards; but the fact that Brady Corbet and his team took a $6-$10 million budget and made it look and feel like something ten times that amount is a testament to all involved with the production, and Corbet for ultimately building this masterpiece brick by brick.
BEST ACTOR:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST
After becoming the youngest Best Actor winner in 2002’s The Pianist, Brody’s career has seen its ups (his work with Wes Anderson) and downs (virtually everything else in the 2010s). His performance as László Tóth brings the culmination of his performance range and striking physical features into a character who has experienced the atrocities of humanity and still finds a way to rebuild his life despite all odds. Some detractors will say this performance is not too far removed from The Pianist, but don’t listen to them. It’s brilliant from start to finish.
BEST ACTRESS:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN: MIKEY MADISON, ANORA
With all due respect to the performances of Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres, Mikey Madison’s portrayal of Ani, the sex worker with more than a heart of gold, has elevated her from a, “oh, she’s on that show,”-type of actress to a Bonafide star. Demi Moore could still have enough of the old guard vote to possibly upset, but it’s unlikely to happen. The real tragedy is that Marianne Jean-Baptiste wasn’t even nominated for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
WILL WIN – KIERNAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
SHOULD WIN – EDWARD NORTON, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
I have a confession to make: this category is so stacked; I have no idea who will actually win Best Supporting Actor. Each of this year’s performances are so strong that they would most likely win any year over the past decade, but the favorite seems to be Culkin this year. If someone else wins, it would not be an upset, nor would I be upset by the decision.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
WILL WIN – ISABELLA ROSSELLINI, CONCLAVE
SHOULD WIN – ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
It may seem as though a Rossellini win would feel more like a lifetime achievement award, but her brief yet powerful role of a sequestered nun who knows more than everyone else takes the classic tropes of Conclave to another level. Don’t be surprised if the Emilia Pérez backlash continues to keep wins away from a strong performance by Saldaña, or if she is spared from all the negativity.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY):
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – PETER STRAUGHAN, CONCLAVE
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY):
WILL WIN – SEAN BAKER, ANORA
SHOULD WIN – BRADY CORBET AND MONA FASTVOLD, THE BRUTALIST
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – FLOW
CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL WIN – LOL CRAWLEY, THE BRUTALIST
SHOULD WIN – GREIG FRASER, DUNE: PART TWO
COSTUME DESIGN:
WILL WIN – PAUL TAZEWELL, WICKED
SHOULD WIN – LINDA MUIR, NOSFERATU
FILM EDITING:
WILL WIN – SEAN BAKER, ANORA
SHOULD WIN – NICK EMERSON, CONCLAVE
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – THE SUBSTANCE
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE):
WILL WIN – EMILIA PÉREZ
SHOULD WIN – THE BRUTALIST
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG):
WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN – “EL MAL” – EMILIA PÉREZ
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM:
WILL WIN – NO OTHER LAND
SHOULD WIN – SUGARCANE
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:
WILL WIN – EMILIA PÉREZ
SHOULD WIN – I’M STILL HERE
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
WILL WIN – NOSFERATU
SHOULD WIN – THE BRUTALIST
SOUND:
WILL WIN – WICKED
SHOULD WIN – DUNE: PART TWO
VISUAL EFFECTS:
WILL WIN – WICKED
SHOULD WIN – DUNE: PART TWO
