Local officials say projects and initiatives will turn those numbers around
A University of Louisville study predicts that Henderson County’s population will decrease by more than 7,000 people by 2050.
The study, titled Kentucky Population and Household Projections 2025-2050, was conducted by the Kentucky State Data Center at UofL and released in June. In it, researchers project that the county will lose 7,377 people in the next 25 years, which is projected to be the fifth highest loss of Kentucky counties over that span.
The biggest reason for the displacement is that births won’t keep pace with the deaths of Baby Boomers, said Matt Ruther, the director of the Kentucky State Data Center.
The current estimate of the county’s population is 44,255. But by 2050, the population is projected to fall to 36,878, according to the study.
The study also provides statistics that the local population is already in decline. In the 2010 Census, there were 46,250 people in the county. The current number—44,255—shows a nearly 2,000 drop in population since 2010.
“Deaths are outnumbering births by about 100 per year,” Ruther said.
That is projected to continue as the largest population group currently is the 60–70-year-old age range, and particularly females in that age range, Ruther said.
He said Baby Boomers are, like many other places, a very large segment of the population, and groups that have come after them have been smaller.
“That’s what’s going to cause the major population loss,” Ruther said.
Another factor involved in the projected loss is that more people are moving out than moving in, Ruther said. From 2020-2025, immigration—both domestic and international—was a 121-person loss.
He said, however, that there is a positive net of international people moving into the area. There were 318 international people who moved into the county; meanwhile, 439 domestic people moved out, according to the study.
Ruther also said that Henderson County has a little bit lower fertility rate and life expectancy than many other counties.
It’s something on the mind of local leaders, who for years have said that ongoing and planned-for initiatives will bring growth to the community.
Henderson County Judge-Executive Brad Schneider in a text message said that local governmental and other organizations are working to build the things that bring people here.
He said that “projections can be wrong. They don’t necessarily dictate future reality. I know the city, the county, Henderson Economic Development and a host of other organizations and businesses are doing all they can to create an environment and opportunities here that promote growth, including good-paying jobs, more housing options, more public amenities, better schools, better quality of life and all the other factors that folks consider when deciding where they want to live.”
Henderson Mayor Brad Staton said the study is something that leaders should pay close attention to and not something he’ll ignore.
“It is definitely something that I am not dismissing,” he said, adding leaders need to continue to make Henderson more attractive and affordable for people and young families to move here.
Staton said he doesn’t believe the projections reflect some of the growth initiatives that the city has taken on in the past several years. Those include the Pratt Paper plant moving to Henderson, the construction of the 300-home Jagoe development that is continuing and others, such as the new SportPlex. He also said the new distillery, Rhythm River, and the revitalization of downtown will help to bring people here.
Additionally, he believes the city commission’s cuts in property taxes over the last several years can help attract people, too. He said in 2016 the property tax rate was 0.611 per $100 of assessed property value. Now, it’s at 0.47 per $100 of assessed value.
The mayor said that increasing population allows local government to also increase its tax base, which is important so that city and county services can expand while also keeping up with salary increases for employees.
Staton said a housing study that is being led by Henderson Economic Development should be finished soon. That will allow local governments to determine local housing needs and a way to get there, he said. This will also help to develop a goal regarding population increase, he said.
HED Executive Director Missy Vanderpool said the study will provide a deep dive to pinpoint types of housing needed locally “to make sure we’re adding the right type of housing for our community.”
That could mean a combination of housing, including single-family residences, apartments and townhomes or others, she said.
If more housing could be built, thousands of people who drive into Henderson from Daviess and Vanderburgh counties for work may decide to move here, she said.
Vanderpool said continued economic development would also bring more people here. HED is currently actively marketing two parcels with potential to bring industry and jobs here. At the 4-Star Industrial Park, there is a one million square foot build-ready site, and right next to Pratt on Ky. 425, there is a 25-plus acre site that has 10 Megawatts of power, water and gas available immediately, she said.
Staton said he believes the positives that have occurred locally the last five years will begin to bring more people here in the next five years, adding an attainable goal would be for the county’s total population to reach 50,000 in the next four years. That level would allow the city and county to be a part of its own MPO, or Metropolitan Planning Organization, a federal designation that allows for funding for some road projects.
Ruther said officials across the state tout plans when projection studies are released. He said, though, that only current conditions can be used in forming projections.
“Projections don’t take into account something that hasn’t happened,” he said.
Researchers will again look at the data in the future, and if there is movement, that will be included in the next projection, Ruther said, adding projects and plans aren’t included in projections “until that actually happens.”
See the study below. Information pertaining directly to Henderson County if found on p. 161-162.
