Courtesy of Northern Kentucky Tribune
Kentucky’s unusual political calendar, in which we elect governors in the odd-numbered year before presidential races, has occasionally interfered with even-year races for U.S. senator. That has hurt Democrats; factional splits led to Sen. Earle Clements’ defeat in 1956 and Wilson Wyatt’s loss in 1962, both to Thruston Morton, and Katherine Peden lost in 1968 to Marlow Cook, whose narrow loss to Louie Nunn in the 1967 primary for governor set him up for the Senate when Morton suddenly retired.
This year’s Senate race might be more indicator than influencer of the 2027 governor’s race – which began Monday with Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman’s announcement that she is seeking the Democratic nomination.
Writing about the Senate race two weeks ago, I said 2020 Democratic nominee Amy McGrath would be the party’s only viable choice for the general election unless fellow moderate Dale Romans “miraculously jump-starts his campaign.” Well, he’s trying. After suggesting that he wouldn’t run TV ads until May, Romans is on the air and McGrath is not (as of Tuesday morning). Tellingly, he’s targeting her on social media with a video showing her saying she agrees with him on debate questions he answered first.
At this point, Romans’ emergence makes it more likely that the Democratic nominee for senator will be Charles Booker, who led McGrath in the latest poll and was far, far ahead of Romans.
Booker is too liberal to be elected senator, but his close race with McGrath in 2020, his nomination to face Sen. Rand Paul in 2022, and his work for Gov. Andy Beshear have made him the favorite of liberals who generate most of the energy among Kentucky Democrats. The conservative wing of the party is vanishing; in local races around the state this spring, there are very few countywide Democratic primaries.
All that is not encouraging news for Rocky Adkins, who ran 6 percentage points behind Beshear in the 2019 Democratic primary for governor, is his senior adviser, and travels with him more frequently than does Coleman, whom Beshear made his running mate in 2019 and 2023.
Adkins is expected to enter the race this summer, in ample time for the Aug. 1 Fancy Farm Picnic. He will be the more conservative candidate, exemplified by his vote in the state House for an almost-total abortion ban, triggered by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022. He may shift that position in light of the decision and the legislature’s rejection of exceptions to the ban, but Coleman seems guaranteed to get most voters for whom abortion is a voting issue; she endorsed abortion rights when she teamed up with Beshear, after largely opposing them when she ran for state representative in 2014.
As the younger and more liberal candidate, and the woman in the race, Coleman is likely to benefit from the energy and organization of Booker’s campaign. But she also has support in the party’s traditional center of energy, organized labor. A former teacher, she is aligned with the Kentucky Education Association, and announced Monday the support of Louisville-based Teamsters Local 89, which has 20,000 members.
That endorsement turned heads, since Adkins has strong labor ties, but he has plenty of other backers, and many Democratic moderates to whom he can appeal. But he will have to create excitement, beginning with generating interest in even voting in the primary. That’s something Kentucky Democrats increasingly have less opportunity and propensity to do.
In the Senate race, Romans continued his string of good debate performances Monday night on KET. As Booker kept pushing “Medicare for all,” Romans interrupted moderator Renee Shaw to say, “We also need a senator who should know reality and is not going to say whatever sounds good in a public forum to get votes.” It was the sharpest jibe of the race.
But it remains to be seen whether Romans can sustain his media campaign, and what TV messages McGrath will use. Romans had only 2 percent in a March 29-31 poll while Booker had 36% and McGrath 18%, with 38% undecided. There are many votes yet to be had, but Romans may have started too late. At this point Booker is still the favorite.
In the Republican primary, a committee with ties to 6th District Rep. Andy Barr (who polled 28%) is running ads attacking former state attorney general Daniel Cameron (21%), who is short of money and not on TV – but is looking to some Republicans like a more palatable alternative to Barr and businessman Nate Morris (15%), whose forces have been savaging each other.
Cameron started TV Tuesday, on a strongly religious theme. He said on KET (where Barr and Morris didn’t show up) that he has the most Kentucky contributors, so he has grass-roots strength – and a chance. Might both our Senate nominees be African Americans?
Al Cross is professor emeritus of journalism at the University of Kentucky. He was the longest-serving political writer for the Louisville Courier Journal (1989-2004) and national president of the Society of Professional Journalists in 2001-02. He joined the Kentucky Journalism Hall of Fame in 2010. Reach him at al.cross@uky.edu The NKyTribune is the home for his commentary which is offered to other publications with appropriate credit.
